Kirkuk University Journal for Agricultural Sciences (KUJAS)

MEASURING AND ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS IN THE IRAQ AGRICULTURAL SECTOR FOR THE PERIOD 2004-2021

https://doi.org/10.58928/ku24.15330
Volume 15, Issue 3
Summer 2024
Page 233-344
Kirkuk University Journal for Agricultural Sciences (KUJAS)

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

waleed ibrahim sultan Al-Bajari

University of Mosul, College of Agriculture and Forestry

Abstract
The study aims to measure the impact of macro shocks (internal & external) on the Iraqi economy in general and on the agricultural sector in particular, by measuring the impact of some macro variables on the gross domestic product and then the agricultural output through the use of two-stage least squares, as the results of estimating the relationship showed In the long term, all economic variables addressed in this research have significant effects on the gross domestic product through joint integration. The most influential of these variables is government spending, , then the exchange rate rate, taxes, and finally the inflation rate, and when the economic variables deviate in the long term Short from their long-run equilibrium values by one unit for each, 67% of this deviation is corrected per year, meaning that the GDP will take approximately a year and a half to return to its equilibrium value, as the response impulse function analysis showed that when Shocks in some economic variables, their impact appears significantly in the long term, and the study recommends paying attention to the international economic transformations affecting the agricultural sector, through adopting appropriate agricultural policies, and employing the achievements of science and technology in order to use modern agricultural techniques locally, in addition to transferring and settling them, as well as reducing Inflation rates are at low and acceptable levels, The researcher also recommends intensifying studies and scientific research on the agricultural sector to delve deeper into the problems that this sector suffers from and find appropriate solutions to them.

Keywords

Macro policies
Agricultural output
internal shocks
external shocks
money supply
Subjects
References
 
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